JEC COMPOSITES MAGAZINE - Issue #116 - October 2017 - 39

Double digit growth again for the wind energy

Regional market trend 2017-2021

Market forecast for 2017-2021 (Source: GWEC)

in the next five years, for a total of 357 GW by
the end of 2021.
Europe
The expectations for a drop in the European
market in recent years have not come to
pass. Overall, the European market was
up very slightly in 2016, despite a lull in
offshore installations, and the EU-28 market
was down only very slightly. Germany had
another strong year, passing the 50,000 MW
mark in cumulative installations, and 2017
is also expected to be strong, before the new
auction system kicks in. France, Turkey and
the Netherlands all had strong years in 2016,
and are expected to repeat in 2017. Offshore
installations are expected to be up again in
2017, as well as in subsequent years, with
much greater growth after 2020 given the
price points which have now been reached.
A number of countries have announced
they are considering accelerating their
offshore programmes in light of the price
points which have been reached in the past
year. Overall, we expect Europe to proceed
in line with its 2020 targets, and while it is
not everything the industry would wish, the
European Commission's proposals for the
post 2020 renewables regime, along with a
strengthening Euro-zone economy, give rise
to cautious optimism. We expect Europe to
install about 73 GW of new wind power in
the period out to 2021.
North America
After the tax deal which was struck at the
end of 2015 for the extension and phase out
of the Production Tax Credit in the period
up to 2020, the US wind industry entered
its longest ever period of policy stability,
and the 2016 market numbers bear this out.
However, the results of the 2016 elections in-

itially cast this expectation of policy stability
into doubt. Although it's early days, it seems
that those arrangements will most likely stay
in place, due to strong bi-partisan support for
wind power, continued support at the state
level, wind power's increasingly competitive
pricing and the more than 100,000 jobs (and
growing) in the sector. This all bodes well for
a strong US market for the next several years.
While the Canadian market is off its peak
installation period of 1-1.5 GW/year from
2011-2015, we expect stable markets of.7-1
GW going forward. Mexico should have its
first year installing more than 1,000 MW in
2017, and should proceed to take off from
there, in line with the new energy reform and
government targets. Overall, we expect 61.5
GW to be installed in the North American
region over the next five years.
In conclusion, these are our expectations
for the next five years, as we see it at the
end of March 2017. No doubt we will have
both positive and negative surprises (there
always are), but we have a lot of confidence
in the wind power market going forward,
as the technology continues to improve,
prices continue to go down and the call for
clean, renewable power to reduce emissions
and create new jobs and new industries gets
stronger each year. We'll revisit these numbers in 2018 to see how accurate we were (or
not), and explore the reasons why.
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Focus
At the end of 2015, renewable energies
reached more than 19.3% of the world's
energy consumption. They provide 24.5% of
global electricity by the end of 2016.

N°116 October 2017

/ jec composites magazine

Feature Wind energy

Asia
At 203.7 GW of installed capacity, the Asian
region is the driver of the global industry, and
we expect that to continue for the foreseeable
future. While falling back from its record
breaking 30 GW market in 2015, China
posted strong installations of 23.4 GW, just
ahead of 2014's market. While we expect
the market to increase a bit in 2017 due to
the imminent feed-in-tariff reduction (and
a spurt in offshore), it is unlikely to repeat
its 2015 achievement in the medium term.
This is due to: the heavy congestion and poor
management of the overall power system
which saw 17% of China's wind generated
electricity curtailed in 2017; the flattening
of demand growth in the country; and
increasing solar installations. The Five-Year
Plan for Energy (2016-2020) was finally
published late last year, and calls for 210 GW
of wind by 2020, which will almost certainly
be surpassed, but not by as much as we had
thought last year. While China has taken the
political decision to transition away from a
coal-based power system towards sustainable
energy, it has some serious systemic and
market issues to address before it can move
much further forward.
India set a new record in 2016, and 2017 is
likely to be another strong year, but after
that things will probably slow a bit as the
industry and markets adapt to the tendering
system which is now being introduced, and
then pick up again. Elsewhere in Asia, Japan
and Korea will continue to grow slowly, but
we're looking at increasing strength in the
market in Pakistan, an impending surge in
the Philippines, a new offshore market in
Taiwan, and the 'next big thing' in Vietnam,
pending critical regulatory changes which are
expected during the course of 2017. Overall,
we expect the Asian market to add 154 GW

Annual market forecast by region 2017-2021 (Source: GWEC)

39
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Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of JEC COMPOSITES MAGAZINE - Issue #116 - October 2017
