JEC COMPOSITES MAGAZINE - Issue #71 - March 2012 - 122

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offered no major differentiation,” Mr. Meyer said. “Currently, OEMs are predicted to be the owners of almost all parts of the value chain, but sooner or later they will have to focus on their core competencies, which probably lie in brand management, especially with regard to the premium segment.”

Electromobility predicted to evolve out of Asia, but with which technology?
Despite the fact that 76% globally said that fuel efficiency is still the most important factor affecting consumer-buying decisions, followed this year by environmental friendliness (65%), two-thirds don’t expect electric vehicles to exceed 15% of annual global sales within the next 15 years. But that does not seem to be the case in China, Japan as well as other high-growth markets where electromobility is expected to take hold sooner, according to the survey findings. Respondents in Asia, China and Japan in particular, predict a higher penetration of fully-electric vehicles than the

global average by 2025; well over 50% of respondents from China expect that new car registrations for e-cars will be upwards of 11 to 25% (or 4 to 9 million vehicles), while 46% of respondents from Japan predict that e-car registrations will exceed 25%. This is in contrast to the US, where nearly 50% believe new e-car registrations will account for only 6 to 10% by 2025. Chief among the issues manufacturers and suppliers seem uncertain about is which fuel technology will emerge as the optimal and predominant method to power the electric car by 2025. Globally, hybrid vehicles are expected to lead the market and attract the most investment in the interim with full hybrids and plug-in versions expected to be the favoured technologies, and fuel-cell vehicles coming in third. This year’s survey found that respondents see an improvement in battery and fuel cell technologies, and there are signs that fuel cells may be viewed as the

preferred option; nevertheless, uncertainty still lingers. This scenario is expected to play out differently in China and Japan where 33% and 46% of respondents, respectively, said that battery-powered vehicles will be the most popular followed by fuel-cell vehicles. “The industry faces a tough decision on whether to place more trust and resources in fuel-cell or battery vehicle concepts in the long-term,” commented Mr. Meyer. “Hybrids may be more popular in the interim than pure, battery-powered cars, but the hidden champion that could emerge will be fuel-cell vehicles.” Interestingly, nearly two-thirds of respondents globally said that optimization of the internal combustion engine (ICE) currently offers greater efficiency and the most potential for carbon emission reduction than the current electromobility technologies over the next 5 years. “Internal combustion engines are not going away any time soon, especially as fuel efficiency and performance standards continue to improve,” said Gary Silberg, US Automotive Sector Leader and a partner in the US firm. “However, OEMs continue to invest heavily in electric propulsion, and ©Toray will play a lea-

dership role in the development of these emerging technologies going forward. While several technology platforms show a lot of promise, there is no clear winner in the race at this point, and the industry will see competition and collaboration among OEMs and suppliers increase as companies fight to win in the marketplace.” Those findings are compelling when viewed alongside the survey results showing that Asian and European OEMs are most likely to gain hugely in market share over the next 5 years, with seven out of the 10 fastest growing auto manufacturers expected to be from Asia. Moreover, a majority of respondents believe that China will lead in both sales and exports of vehicles by 2017, followed by the US, and Brazil in a close tie for third with India. “Our survey also revealed that 75% believe that mature and emerging markets are converging which will mean that the opportunities and the challenges will be the same for both,” said Chang Soo Lee, KPMG’s Head of Automotive for Asia and the Head of the Automotive Industry Department of KPMG Samjong Accounting Corp., South Korea. “This has big implications for OEMs from mature markets; they will have a wealth of new opportunities, but they can expect fierce competition from players in the BRIC countries for traditional and new technologies in their domestic markets.”n
Source: Global Automotive Executive Survey 2012, KPMG More information: www.kpmg.com

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JEC COMPOSITES MAGAZINE - Issue #71 - March 2012

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