JEC COMPOSITES MAGAZINE - Issue #72 - April/May 2012 - 23

carbon survey
«Large tow» Nameplate capacities (metric tonnes) Zoltek Group Europe USA & Mexico Asia (Country not confirmed yet) SGL Group Europe Evanston, USA Moses Lake, USA Bluestar China UK Kemrock, India Mitsubishi Rayon, Japan Toray Group, Japan Total «large tow» Output (coefficient 0.9) Jaitec Pyrofil Torayca Starafil Sigrafil Brand name Panex 2011 13200 8200 5000 0 6000 4000 2000 0 1950 1600 350 0 700 300 22150 19935 2012 13200 8200 5000 0 7500 4000 2000 1500 3700 3200 500 0 700 300 25400 22860 2013 17000 9000 6000 2000 9000 4000 2000 3000 3700 3200 500 0 2700 300 32700 29430 2014 21000 9000 8000 4000 9000 4000 2000 3000 3700 3200 500 1500 2700 300 38200 34380 2015 26000 10000 10000 6000 9000 4000 2000 3000 3700 3200 500 1500 2700 300 43200 38880

Tab. 2: Global nameplate capacities (in metric tonnes) of «large tow» (Above 24K, 48K, 50K, 60K, 80K, 320K…) PAN-based carbon fibre

All data in italic are publisher’s estimates

Matching supply and Demand
So with PAN-based fibre production amounting to 74,000 and 106,000 in 2012 and 2015 respectively this might suggest a possibility of production overcapacity (see table 3). It is not easy to have supply and demand match. Every year, there is a huge difference between expected demand and production. A few years ago there was a shortage of Carbon Fibre. Despite the fact that forecast production volumes were higher than forecast demand

by a few thousand tons. It is very difficult to know the volumes that actually leave the plant and also very difficult to know what production is on markets that are very sensitive for strategic reasons (Military & Defense, Nuclear Enrichment, Oil & Gas…). One thing is certain: substantial capital investment is required to install a PAN precursor or carbon fiber line. Big companies do in-depth research before investing such sums. Toray Group has made a lot of announcements about the increase
2011 87,200 65,470 2012 98,700 74,170

in its production capacities (from 17,900 tons in 2012 to 27,100 tons in 2015 for small & large tows) and Zoltek Group should double its production capacities between 2012 and 2015 (from 13,200 to 26,000 tons). The two main players in terms of volume, Toray for small tow and Zoltek for large tow, are investing to maintain their market leader positions. In the future, Industrial applications requiring low cost carbon fibres are the most promising in terms of
2013 115,950 87,705 2014 128,950 97,905 2015 139,450 106,255

Small tow spools

©Hexcel

PAN-based carbon fibre (metric tonnes) Total nameplate capacities Total output

Tab. 3: Global nameplate capacities and total ouput (in metric tonnes) of PAN-based carbon fibre (both small and large tow)

volume. Larger quantities of large tow carbon fibres will have to be produced. Zoltek, SGL and Mitsubishi Rayon have planned expansion. It will be very interesting to see how things unfond after 2015 with the promised boom in Automotive demand. It is interesting to note that several manufacturers may use their 24K lines to produce 48K.

No72 April - May 2012 /

jec composites magazine 23

JEC COMPOSITES MAGAZINE - Issue #72 - April/May 2012

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of JEC COMPOSITES MAGAZINE - Issue #72 - April/May 2012