Trésorier/Treasurer magazine - N°93 - Apr/May/Jun 2016 - (Page 24)

LE MAGAZINE DU TRESORIER / TREASURER MAGAZINE - N°93 - APR / MAY / JUNE 2016 FORUM 24 Geopolitical Threats for the Year Ahead In the last decade, multinational organizations have undertaken unprecedented international expansion, leaving them exposed to global credit and political risks like never before. And those risks - including terrorism and political violence, armed conflicts, increasingly powerful antiestablishment political movements, and persistently low commodity prices - continue to grow. Companies worldwide must now be prepared for virtually any type of political or economic risk threat in both developed and emerging markets. Terrorism Attacks in 2015 have led to a renewed focus by world powers on combating terrorism. Of greatest concern is the Islamic State, which remains powerful in Iraq and Syria and is expanding its presence throughout the Middle East and North Africa. The "war on terror," which began in earnest after the September 11, 2001, attacks in the United States, is likely to continue for at least another decade, according to BMI Research. In addition to their role in prolonging instability in the Middle East, the risk of terrorist attacks will persist in North American, European, and Asian countries, even as they introduce stronger security measures. The threat of terrorism has also increased concerns in Western countries about immigration policy, and has proven to be a boon for right-wing political parties in Europe. Emerging economies struggle China continues to struggle as the country's economy shifts its focus from investment to consumption. In the third quarter of 2015, real GDP growth in China fell to 6.9% year over year, the slowest growth since the first quarter of 2009. Economic reforms, a weak real estate market, over-leveraging of corporate entities, and rising wages - which will eliminate a significant competitive advantage for Chinese manufacturers - will likely continue to limit growth in the next several years. In the third quarter of 2015, real GDP growth in China fell to 6.9% year over year, the slowest growth since the first quarter of 2009. China's slowdown is emblematic of the broader struggles of emerging markets globally. In Brazil, fixed investment and household consumption remain weak, driven by rising job losses, high inflation and interest rates, and a prolonged investigation into alleged corruption at Petrobras. Meanwhile, investment growth in Russia has been minimal since 2012, and the deep recession in 2015 only exacerbated the problem for the Russian economy. Consumption will likely recover slowly in 2016, but inflation will stay high and nominal wage growth will remain subdued. A bright spot among emerging economies is India, for which real GDP growth is estimated at 7.2% in 2016.

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Trésorier/Treasurer magazine - N°93 - Apr/May/Jun 2016

Cover
Table of contents
EDITORIAL
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Luxembourg Tax News
INTERVIEW David Blair - How should we set up an efficient KYC Process?
FOCUS
IFRS 9: Hedging - Treasurers will love it
From 17 to 16 reLEASE of the new LEASE accounting standard
Block chain - Is this buzz word turning into a reality?
Bank Single Gateway, the Plumbing of Bank Connectivity
FORUM
Geopolitical threats for the year ahead
Treasurers proceed with caution
Des difficultés en série pour les nouveaux entrants
Easing the Burden - Is a global KYC standard needed?
European trade repository of the year
La dette senior Européenne, un regard nouveau sur l'obligataire
CORPORATE FINANCE
Stay connected with cloud treasury technology
From stone age to straight through processing
Differentiators for treasury management systems
Complete securities financing solutions for corporates
A full and balanced "meal" for your retirement?
15 MINUTES WITH FinMetrics
THE FINANCIAL RISK OBSERVATORY
NEWS
LIFE BEYOND NUMBERS

Trésorier/Treasurer magazine - N°93 - Apr/May/Jun 2016