NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 59

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR
THE ECONOMY?
The first and inevitable consequence will be a
recession. Because even if activity resumes after
the end of the health crisis, the prolonged lack of
activity will cause a significant cut in the generation and circulation of cash flows that will not be
remedied just by a resumption of operations.
Given the situation, banks will drastically reduce
their credit supply, which will pose a problem for a
rapid recovery in investment.
Central banks around the world know this and
have already announced their commitment to
inject liquidity into the markets, but this injection
is for the moment blind, since it remains to be
determined which sectors will need it most when
the time comes. In addition, the announced injections may prove to be insufficient, as the magnitude of the coming economic recession will largely
depend on the duration and reach of the current
health crisis.
No matter what measures are taken at the dawn of
the coming recession, there will be long periods of
economic turmoil. Nevertheless, it is obvious that

exceptional measures, never seen since the 19th
century, are to be expected. This may involve company rescues and injections of liquidity that will be
done in urgency and, therefore, the targeting criteria will not be optimal, thus resulting in distortions, where companies previously in bad condition
receive too much funds while companies in good
condition receive little funds. As well as this, we
may see more or less temporary nationalizations,
both partial and full, of companies, in particular
those "too-big-to-fail", like airline companies, utilities, etc. As a result, the level of public and private
debt will make an increase in interest rates even
more distant, which neutralizes a banking tool for
controlling debtors' risk.
If the worst is avoided however there is the potential that the economy will restart with much more
liquidity available than before (provided by desperate central banks), which will allow banks to
revive credit from a base that is far too high than
todays. If credit restarts on an even higher basis
than the current one, the rise in prices of financial
and real estate assets will resume, as well as debt
for education and consumption. This may lead to
further inequalities in wealth which will therefore
tend to widen thanks to the rescue intervention
but not thanks to the market. But can the worst
consequences and structural distortions be
avoided? Yes, if a government takes advantage of
the subsidy from central banks to rebalance its
budget, reform its taxation, soften its bureaucracy
and adopt strict rules of budget responsibility. All
this tends to reduce public debt and therefore the
incentive to revive bank credit too quickly. But this
solution, at least in Europe, requires a level of
supranational concertation that is unthinkable for
the moment. ❚

DR

exchanged for liquidity. Some of these assets are
more liquid, that is, can be more easily sold than
others. In any case, the more liquidity circulates in
an economy, the more liquid the markets for securities are, which makes it easier for businesses and
investors holding such assets to obtain liquidity if
needed.
Unfortunately, the Covid-19 crisis caused by the
coronavirus pandemic has resulted in a more or
less great halt in productive activity and therefore
in the commercial operations of companies. They
are therefore unable to generate cash flow, which
then leads them to liquidate their assets to meet
their obligations. However, this cessation in liquidity circulation occurs massively which then puts in
check the very liquidity of the financial markets,
which then find it difficult to provide liquidity to
companies. Those players with liquidity surpluses
do not let go of their funds, while those with liquidity deficits default on their liabilities with all the
consequences that this can have on the real economy: rising unemployment, lower consumption
and reconsolidation of projects.

By Gabriel A. Gimenez Roche, Assistant Professor of
Economics at NEOMA Business School
This article was originally published on
openaccessgovernment.org.

NEOMA ALUMNI mag JUIN 2020

- 59 -


http://www.openaccessgovernment.org

NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020

Table des matières de la publication NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020

EDITO
SOMMAIRE
PROFILS
- Actus des alumni et Mouvements
- Portraits : Hughes Cavelan (PGE 90), Philippe Guihéneuf (PGE 90), Fanny Moizant (PGE 01) et Alicia Combaz (PGE 07)
- Interview de Sandrine Conseiller (PGE 95), CEO d’Aigle
MAGAZINE
- Les alumni face au Covid-19
- Les défis de la Supply Chain face au Covid-19
- Quelle gouvernance pour demain ?
- La carte des initiatives solidaires des alumni
- Les secrets du Personal Branding
- Optimiser son départ à la retraite
ASSO
- Les actualités de NEOMA Alumni
- Les neuf étapes pour briser le plafond de verre
- CareeR CenteR® : un accompagnement individualisé au coeur de la nouvelle offre
- Comment est fabriqué votre magazine ?
- Immense succès pour l’avant-première du film Woman
- Sortie du livre NEOMA Alumni et NEOMA BS sur la Supply Chain
- Les secrets pour convaincre en entretien quand on ne coche pas toutes les cases
- Comment travailler sa communication non verbale ?
- Comment l’IA transforme le recrutement
- Le métier de consultant revisité
- Comment passer du savoir vendre au savoir faire acheter ?
- Les canaux de vente B to B : de l’Insides Sales au Modern Selling
- Tribu Russie : la chaleur russe
- Tribu Champagne-Ardenne : une pétillante tribu
CAMPUS
- Les actus du Campus
- Jean-François Julliard, le directeur de Greenpeace France, invité des conférences humanités
- Nouveau PGE : connecter les talents au monde de demain
- What Economic Consequences Can We Expect To Come From Covid-19 ?
- Actus étudiants
- Comment les entreprises peuvent-elles se projeter dans le futur pour anticiper les crises ?
- Interview d’Hervé Colas, ancien directeur général adjoint sur le campus de Reims
INDEX - Retrouvez les diplômés dans ce numéro
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 1
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 2
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - EDITO
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - SOMMAIRE
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 5
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - - Actus des alumni et Mouvements
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 7
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 8
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 9
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - - Portraits : Hughes Cavelan (PGE 90), Philippe Guihéneuf (PGE 90), Fanny Moizant (PGE 01) et Alicia Combaz (PGE 07)
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 11
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - - Interview de Sandrine Conseiller (PGE 95), CEO d’Aigle
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 13
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 14
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 15
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - - Les alumni face au Covid-19
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 17
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 18
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 19
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 20
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 21
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - - Les défis de la Supply Chain face au Covid-19
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 23
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 24
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 25
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - - Quelle gouvernance pour demain ?
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 27
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - - La carte des initiatives solidaires des alumni
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - - Les secrets du Personal Branding
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 30
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 31
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - - Optimiser son départ à la retraite
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 33
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - - Les actualités de NEOMA Alumni
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - - Les neuf étapes pour briser le plafond de verre
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - - CareeR CenteR® : un accompagnement individualisé au coeur de la nouvelle offre
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 37
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - - Comment est fabriqué votre magazine ?
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 39
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - - Immense succès pour l’avant-première du film Woman
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 41
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - - Sortie du livre NEOMA Alumni et NEOMA BS sur la Supply Chain
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 43
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - - Les secrets pour convaincre en entretien quand on ne coche pas toutes les cases
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - - Comment travailler sa communication non verbale ?
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - - Comment l’IA transforme le recrutement
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - - Le métier de consultant revisité
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - - Comment passer du savoir vendre au savoir faire acheter ?
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - - Les canaux de vente B to B : de l’Insides Sales au Modern Selling
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - - Tribu Russie : la chaleur russe
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - - Tribu Champagne-Ardenne : une pétillante tribu
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - - Les actus du Campus
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 53
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - - Jean-François Julliard, le directeur de Greenpeace France, invité des conférences humanités
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 55
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - - Nouveau PGE : connecter les talents au monde de demain
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 57
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - - What Economic Consequences Can We Expect To Come From Covid-19 ?
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 59
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - - Actus étudiants
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 61
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - - Comment les entreprises peuvent-elles se projeter dans le futur pour anticiper les crises ?
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 63
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - - Interview d’Hervé Colas, ancien directeur général adjoint sur le campus de Reims
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 65
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 66
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - INDEX - Retrouvez les diplômés dans ce numéro
NEOMA Alumni Mag - N°23 - Juin 2020 - 68
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