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ONLINE BRUSSELS HERITAGE - ONE-DAY SEMINAR - 11/12/2014
This doesn't mean that such tools should not be used, simply that one must keep in mind that there are uncertainties and that those uncertainties propagate. These calculation engines are powerful tools for comparing different solutions. However, to achieve the most optimal results, it is necessary to work with a range of values of a realistic span (and not a value of 2 kWh/ mVyear). After carrying out work, the more in-depth knowledge of the package of works applied may enable future consumption to be correctly simulated, but any saving (which is the difference between consumption before and after the works) will always be inaccurate for all the reasons stated above, most notably that relating to the initial condition of the building.
Translated from French.
Fig. 10 and 11
Probability curves of heating requirements in kWh/m2/year. If care isn't taken, the heating requirements can vary significantly with major uncertainties in relation to the input data (source: Cerema).
62 | Analysis of uncertainties in dynamic thermal simulations for old housing
